Saturday, December 31, 2011

Weekend Open Thread...

Friday, December 30, 2011

The Many not the Few Edition - Another Year that Debt Slaves Fail to Shed their Shackles…

Good Morning,

On this last trading day of the year in our completely corrupt, manipulated, and lawless “markets,” equities are lower, the dollar is lower, bonds are higher, oil is lower, gold & silver are higher, while food commodities continue to choke real people all because of worthless paper made to benefit the few.

Although it has been another year of intervention with trillions spewed globally, U.S. equity markets for the year are in fact almost exactly flat. Below is a 1 year chart of the S&P 500, you can see that we are ending the year almost exactly where it began:



Despite that fact and a huge correction, gold still finished the year up approximately $240 an ounce, or about 17.5% (the horizontal red line below indicates year beginning level). In the gold daily chart below you can see that we reached the secondary uptrend line yesterday and bounced:



That line may offer support, or in the event of further correction may fall to the next line of support which is in the $1,100ish area as you can see on the monthly chart below. Personally, I doubt it, and think this market is also extremely manipulated but far more desirable as long as the world is run by central debt pushers:



Strong support for silver will be found in the $24 to $25 region, Silver Weekly chart, note that silver is down for the year:



How much debt are the central criminals pushing (U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 8)? Trillions upon Trillions, most of it off balance sheet and off the radar of reported statistics – certainly not audited if real records even exist, but here’s what we can see on the surface…

In the past year our Base Money supply has risen from under $2 trillion to almost $2.6 trillion! That one year increase is MORE than 31%! In just one year!

Base Money 1 Year:


Can it grow at that same rate again next year? What will happen to you, personally, if it does?

M1 1 Year:


M2 1 Year:


MZM 1 Year:


Federal Government Debt 1 Year:


Federal Government Debt Divided by Population:


And that’s just the Federal debt on the records. Then there’s the trillions at Freddie and Fannie, trillions more off books elsewhere, trillions swapped by our central criminals around the world, and many trillions more in obligations not accounted for like any rational accounting standard demands.

While dramatically understated, all the figures above are still growing at huge exponential rates. Because our money is debt, it must continue to grow at the same or higher rate OR ELSE another wave of deflation will quickly set in. Waves of inflation, waves of deflation as they MANIPULATE the population in order to remain in power!

Money production = POWER & CONTROL.

DEBT = SLAVE

A few individuals possess the power, the rest of the world are slaves. This is easily corrected if money is created without debt.

MONEY WITHOUT DEBT = SOVEREIGN MONEY

SOVEREIGN MONEY = FREEDOM, no slavery required.

FREEDOM = SECURITY

BANKRUPT NATION = LACK OF SECURITY

What will next year bring? Bigger numbers. Bigger lies. Bigger manipulations and interventions. Bigger & more frequent “other events.”

Eventually, and I don’t know when, the other events will culminate in a global shift of power. Those who hold the power will attempt to blind you with the other events and use them to mask the shifting into some other form of convoluted money system that they still control – be it gold or some other debt money scheme. It could be real ugly. Then again maybe enough people wise up to keep the ugliness down as there DOES NOT HAVE TO BE PAIN foisted upon the people!

WHAT is behind the money DOESN’T MATTER. What does matter is WHO. Who it is that controls the production of money is EVERYTHING – it’s the power & control. And eventually… sooner or later… the PEOPLE will repossess their natural right to be in control of themselves. That’s where this is all headed, I don’t know how, and I don’t know when. Only a fool would guess, only a fool would listen to someone else pretending to know. I’ve been a fool before, but am wise enough now to know…

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

This is the Economic Edge song of the year. Not only is it on the mark, but his bravery for standing up and singing it face to face with the purveyors of debt, those in control, is historically brave.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/29 - Italian Eye Roll Edition...

Good Morning,

Equity futures are close to even this morning with the dollar slightly higher, bonds flat, oil flat, gold & silver are lower, and food commodities are mixed with corn up for the tenth day in a row.

The complicit media sure is talking a lot about the Italian debt auction as if by some miracle a debt saturated country is going to sell $400 billion in bonds to… Hello, what a joke. Those bonds are going to the central banks who are simply making money from nothing to buy them. LOL, they are even taking money from Italy then leveraging (making money from nothing) to buy more debt from Italy that the people are then responsible to pay. Why would any sane and rational individual care about the activities of the narcissists at this point? They should be run out of town at the end of a hot poker. Enron, Madoff, and Ponzi are pikers compared to the central criminals. Not real, none of it.

There’s a lot of data out today but most of it comes out later so will be reported inside of today’s Daily Thread.

Weekly Jobless Claims came out substantially higher than expected at 381,000. Here’s Econoexcuse:
Highlights
Estimates were needed in the December 24 week for a large number of states, seven states which isn't unusual for a holiday week but nevertheless still cloud a large 15,000 rise in initial claims to 381,000 (prior week revised 2,000 higher). The four-week average for this series grows in importance during the holidays and, despite the rise in the latest week, shows a sizable decline of 5,750 to a 375,000 level that's the best of the recovery. This is the fourth straight decline for the four-week average and the eighth decline in the last nine weeks.

Continuing claims in data for the December 17 week rose 34,000 to 3.601 million, still the four-week average is down 39,000 to 3.599 million in what is another recovery best. The unemployment rate for insured workers rose one tenth from the prior week's recovery low to 2.9 percent.

The steady downtrend in the four-week average for initial claims is tangible evidence of improvement in the labor market. Markets are showing no significant reaction to today's results.



Excuses, excuses, excuses… but still not even close to the break even mark of 350k. Unadjusted claims rose by very large numbers.

Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Kansas City “Fed” Manufacturing Index, and an assortment of other indicators are released throughout the morning.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/28 - It’s the Debt, Stupid!

Good Morning,

Equities are lower this morning with the dollar rising, oil lower than yesterday’s high but still over $100, gold & silver considerably lower, and unfortunately for the world food prices are significantly higher at the same time.

Yes, it’s the DEBT, stupid, for anyone left on the planet that still doesn’t get it! Deficits DO matter! It’s a viscous circle because our money is debt. Those who produce it profit, while those who service it become slaves to it. That’s the problem, and it doesn’t have to be that way!

Money can come into existence without owing debt to any individuals! And before you shout INFLATION, yes, it is completely possible to do so without creating inflation, but it requires legitimate checks and balances.

Now we have Obama wanting another $1.2 Trillion to the debt ceiling! Yes, it matters! The more debt an economy carries, the more of that economy’s productivity goes into carrying that debt! Eventually debt saturation is reached and then unemployment begins to rise dramatically as income must service debt instead of being used as a tool of production.

Below is a chart showing our advertised Current Account Deficit – this deficit is only a FRACTION of our real debts, as we carry massive debts off balance sheet as well as massive obligations that are multiples of the advertised debt:



Below is our Current Account Deficit divided by the nation’s population – with the additional $1.2 Trillion we will be pushing $50,000 of advertised national debt for every man, woman, and child. Keep in mind that per working adult, this figure is more than double that:

Deficit Divided by Population:


Note in both those charts above the exponential math that creates the parabolic rise. Also note that Obama’s $1.2 Trillion continues the trajectory nearly straight up. Straight up is most definitely not sustainable – this WILL come to an end. The end will not be pretty, historic events will be occurring as it does.

And this debt is just the Federal Government debt! Then you must consider that the same population is also responsible to maintain all the debt in state governments, in local governments, in corporations, AND they must service their own personal debts! Impossible math just is.

And it is NOT possible to pay down the debt, because as you do you shrink the supply of money. And it is NOT possible to "inflate away debt" with money creation because our money is debt! Adding money adds debt, just look at the above charts! So, anyone who tells you that it's possible to inflate away our debt simply doesn't understand our money system (control you and profit from you system) or how we became debt saturated in the first place.

Oh yes, it is completely possible to escape this situation WITHOUT PAIN. But you first must acknowledge the underlying truths. Once you do, then we can set about making the purveyors of debt eat their own pain while freeing the rest of the planet from their shackles.

Equity prices rose right to resistance and now are fading. Coincident with that are headlines about Iran’s Vice President making threats to close the Straight of Hormuz. Other events are percolating, major league historic ones will be needed to mask the new money transition that is coming. If those who profit from the creation of money wish to hold onto that power, then they need to justify those other events which will culminate in new money systems that they also control, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat, they control the world forever.

Meanwhile, a University of Michigan study found that the wealth of members of Congress has TRIPLED in the past 25 years - while the average U.S. family has suffered a DROP in their net worth. During that time, the Median net worth of members of Congress rose from $280,000 to $725,000, while over that same 25 years the wealth of the average U.S. family slipped to $20,500 from $20,600.

This dramatically shows that the closer one is to the production of debt money, the more they profit. In this case politicians profit from both insider information in corrupt markets, and also from direct contributions from the purveyors of debt - today called campaign contributions, i.e. laundered bribes.

If you wish to break the psychotic cycle of narcissistic control, then we must deny individuals the ability to make money from nothing. The people, collectively, must be in control of money production with its primary production not benefiting any individuals within society.

No major economic reports today, a bunch more lies to dispel tomorrow.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/27 - Ruby Tuesday Edition...

Good Morning,

Equities are close to even this morning as prices are sitting right on overhead resistance. Pushing prices higher through the holidays is a given for those manipulating the false fluff, especially with some international markets still closed. The dollar and bonds are higher, however, while oil tries to break the $100 mark, gold & silver are down slightly, and food commodities are mixed with leftover indigestion.

Home prices continue to decline at a faster pace than the supposed experts think. The Case-Shiller report for October says that the 20 city price index declined a seasonally adjusted .6% for the month, 1.2% not adjusted, and 3.4% for the year. Personally, my home’s assessment declined approximately 10% over that time period, so once again believing these figures is difficult. Here’s Econoplicit:
Highlights
Indications on home prices are for the most part trending downwards with Case-Shiller the latest to show contraction, at an adjusted 0.6 percent in October following a revised 0.7 percent decline in September and a 0.4 percent decline in August. For the unadjusted data, which in this series is closely watched, contraction steepened from a revised 0.7 percent in September to 1.2 percent in October. The deeper monthly contraction here likely reflects, at least in part, the dampening effects on demand from colder weather. The year-on-year comparison, where seasonality plays much less of a factor than the month-on-month comparison, both the adjusted and unadjusted series show 3.4 percent contraction which in a mild positive is a little less severe than prior months.

But the year-on-year rate won't be improving much if monthly contraction continues to extend. A look at individual cities shows a break down in Atlanta where monthly rates of adjusted decline have been 4.1 percent, 4.8 percent and 2.9 percent the last three reports. At a year-on-year minus 11.7 percent, Atlanta is the only one of the report's 20 cities to show double-digit contraction. Other weak spots include Minneapolis, Los Angeles, and Chicago as well as Las Vegas and Miami.

Home sales have been firming and reports of life in the housing and construction-related sectors are picking up. But the gains are being made at the expense of price. Next data out of the housing sector will be mortgage applications tomorrow morning.

Spin, spin, spin/ positive bias.

Below is a chart of the 20 city price index since the year 2000. I no longer believe this chart and the Case-Shiller report are accurate, I don’t believe prices declined and then stabilized, I believe they have continued to decline:



Below is the entire Case-Shiller report, now corrupted as S&P owns it:

Case-Shiller October 2011

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was just released and came in worse than expected at a level of 3 when 5 was the expectation. It is up, however, from the prior zero reported. Again, this is “Fed” data, indexed from surveys by managers who measure in dollars. Dallas “Fed” Index comes out in a few minutes and will be reported inside of today’s Daily Thread.

And this just reported by the Puget Sound Business Journal;
"Sears Holding Co. .. said it will close between 100 and 120 Sears and Kmart full-line stores, citing a "difficult economic environment, especially for big-ticket items."

The Chicago Tribune reports Illinois-based Sears reported terrible holiday sales. In a statement, Sears officials said closing the stores will generate $140 to $170 million of cash, and they added the final list of stores to be closed hasn't been determined.

And evidently the con is working slightly as Consumer Confidence rose from guttural level of 56, all the way to the still depression read of 64.5. That is above expectations of 59, must be time to break that overhead resistance and get on with the business of reelecting the Usurper-in-Chief.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Merry Christmas/ Weekend Open Thread...

Uncle Jay - Singing Year in Review...

Friday, December 23, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/23 - Holly Jolly Christmas Squeeze Edition…

Good Morning,

Equities are slightly higher this morning, the dollar is also slightly higher, bonds are lower, oil is trying to break $100 a barrel again, and food commodities are higher for the sixth day in a row – Merry Christmas.

As I told you to expect last month, this month produced a large spike higher in Durable Goods Orders due to a single large aircraft order from Boeing. That order caused Durable Goods Orders to jump 3.8% in November, here’s Econonotaclue:
Highlights
New orders for civilian aircraft led to a huge spike in durables orders. Otherwise, durables orders were modestly positive. New factory orders for durables surged 3.8 percent, following a no change the prior month (prior revised estimate, down 0.5 percent). The November boost was much higher than the consensus forecast for a 1.9 percent jump. Excluding transportation, durables grew 0.3 percent after a 1.5 percent gain in October (prior revised estimate, up 1.1 percent). The November rise fell short of expectations for a 0.4 percent increase. However, upward revisions are offsetting.

Outside of transportation, new orders were led by primary metals and machinery with fabricated metals and "other" also gaining. Weakness was seen in computers & electronics and also electrical equipment.

A disappointment was in civilian capital equipment excluding aircraft which dipped 1.2 percent after a 0.9 percent decline in October. Shipments decreased 1.0 percent in November after a 0.8 percent fall the month before.

Overall, durables point to continued gains in manufacturing but not at a robust pace outside of aircraft.

Look for next month's report to disappoint.

Reality? Durable Goods is a national embarrassment. Not only does this not make me proud, it makes me ashamed. Below is a chart showing Durable Goods Orders, as measured in dollars against MZM, the largest dollar measurement currently produced. Note that Durable Goods Orders, measured in dollars, collapsed in 2008 – at the low point it was only $150 Billion, not that far above where it was in the early ‘90s. In dollars, it has now risen to a little over $200 Billion, a figure that is a little short of doubling in the past two decades. But what you have to consider is that the supply of dollar during the same time period went from roughly $2 Trillion all the way to nearly $11 Trillion, more than 5 times the amount! And I’m here to tell you that MZM vastly understates the total moneyness that exists today:

Durable Goods Vs. MZM:


Let me translate what I said above in a way that is a little easier to understand – the reality is that Durable Goods Orders are massively shrinking! If you were to measure the actual total widgets produced here in the United States, the numbers are dramatically less. What are we producing in reality? Dollars. Dollars backed by DEBT. Debt that pays interest to private individuals. The same individuals who are shipping our manufacturing overseas. The same individuals who where wrongly given the authority to produce money from nothing. Illegally and in direct conflict with the Constitution – Article 1, Section 8.

Think I’m wrong about that? Take a look at the following chart of Durable Goods versus M1. You will see a very strong correlation:

Durable Goods vs. M1:


Note that downturns in Durable Goods are always met with increases in money supply. We produce money and are absolutely losing our ability to produce real goods. The end game for our money is getting close. They cannot allow the math to get smaller or all the figures measured in dollars will collapse, and there goes their power and control – they know this, so they won’t allow it to happen. They will try and try to create ever larger numbers in the money space, just look at Europe’s latest “LTRO.” This is what kills money systems. A structural reset of some type is nearing – look for “other events” to distract you.

Now, to make reality very clear for Durable Goods, we are going to divide Durable Goods by M1 so that we can see the effects of money creation on something that is measured in money:

Durable Goods Divided by M1:


That's right... Durable Goods fell off a cliff to new all-time REAL lows, and is near that area still, despite massive money printing - that's the reality and it is laid bare by that chart.

Meanwhile, Personal Income reported for November disappointed, coming in at .1% following October’s .5% (revised lower of course). Note that the wages and salary component is actually negative. Consumer Spending was also very anemic, rising only .1%. Gee, what happened to that “record setting” Black Friday that the media is still claiming set all kinds of records and was up like 15% over last year? Well, that was all bullshit:
Highlights
Personal income and spending posted modest gains in November. Meanwhile, PCE price inflation was soft. Personal income in November grew 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase the month before. November's gain fell short of analysts' forecast for a 0.2 percent rise. However, the wages & salaries component slipped 0.1 percent after a 0.6 percent increase in October. The rise in personal income was led by gains in rental income and dividends combined with a decline in contributions for government social insurance.

Consumer spending in November advanced a soft 0.1 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase the month before. The market consensus was for a 0.3 percent gain. Weakness for the latest month was in nondurables (reflecting lower gasoline prices) which fell 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent dip in October. Durables jumped 0.8 percent in November as services edged up 0.1 percent.

Headline inflation firmed but both headline and core inflation remained soft. The headline PCE price index was unchanged after dipping 0.1 percent in October. Analysts had called for a 0.1 percent increase. The core rate held steady at 0.1 percent in November and matching market expectations.

Year-on-year, headline prices were up 2.5 percent, compared to 2.7 percent in October. The core was up 1.7 percent, matching the pace of the prior month.

While November income is little disappointing, that is less so after taking into account earlier healthier gains. However, spending is sluggish though less so after discounting inflation. Real PCEs rose 0.2 percent in each October and November after jumping 0.5 percent in September.

Overall, the fourth quarter is showing improvement over the third but not as much as earlier hoped. But the majority of the Fed's FOMC will be happy with the recent inflation numbers, allowing the Fed to stay loose for some time.

Nothing but manure, the stench is distracting. Again remember that these measurements are first measured in dollars! So, even with all the money printing occurring, both personal income and consumer spending were only able to eek out .1% gains – absolutely pathetic, oh, and not even close to real!

If you want to see real, here it is.

Below is a chart showing Personal Income versus M1. Note that since 1975, personal income has supposedly grown from about $2.8 trillion to a little more than $11 trillion, an increase of roughly 4 times. However, the supply of money during the same time grew nearly 8 times, or about twice the rate of growth!

Personal Income vs. M1:


Now, if we divide Personal Income by M1, then the picture of REAL Personal Income becomes clear (not the trumped up version of Fedspeak “real” – that is not real, it is a lie because they drastically understate inflation):

Personal Income Divided by M1:


Yowzzaa… That is the reality right there. Note that your income to the money supply has never been weaker! That is a picture of the SQUEEZE that you are in. You are put into that squeeze by the people who profit (wrongly) from the creation of your money. You are being paid in debt! Talk about nutty, you owe interest on the money which you are being paid with! And you don’t owe it to your government, you owe it to a few private individuals! Nuts! If I offered to pay you in debt, you would refuse, right? Yet that is exactly what you’ve been accepting your entire life, just not stated clearly to you.

I hope that wakes people up, you are truly feeding the matrix with your work… and it doesn’t have to be like that at all, all we have to do is say NO MORE.

Bonus Chart for those "buy and hold investors..."

S&P 500 Divided by MZM:


I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/22 - Snow Job Edition…

Good Morning,

Welcome to winter… in more ways than one. It’s definitely snowing Euros, and that pushed trumped markets higher for the manipulators overseas, while the grand master manipulators back home managed to fudge data and push equity futures higher as well. However, the dollar is flat and bonds are higher which does not support higher prices in equities. Oil, meanwhile, is still gumming up the global economy, while for today gold and silver take a little break, and food commodities are mixed.

The almost final Q3 “final” GDP revision pushed supposed “growth” down from 2.0% to 1.8%. It will be revised lower again with the annual adjustments which will have to consider how the NAR lied about existing home sales. By the way, when an already existing home is sold, is that really something that should be counted in the nation’s “productivity?” Especially when said sale is financed with more debt? Yep, just one reason why our GDP is vastly overstated. Here’s Econoshouldknowbetter:
Highlights
Economic growth for the third quarter was more sluggish than previously believed and the change in the component mix will have economists rethinking their forecasts for the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department for its third estimate for third quarter GDP growth nudged its number down to 1.8 percent annualized growth from the prior estimate of 2.0 percent annualized. Market expectations were for overall GDP growth to be unrevised.

The downward revision primarily was due a smaller decline in inventories and also to less robust growth in personal consumption.

Final sales of domestic product were revised down to 3.2 percent from the second estimate of 3.6 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were down to 2.7 percent from the prior estimate of 3.0 percent annualized.

On a year-ago basis, GDP is up 1.5 percent, compared to 1.6 percent in the second quarter.

Economy-wide inflation revised up marginally to 2.6 percent from the second estimate of 2.5 percent. Analysts had called for an unrevised 2.5 percent.

This morning's economic news was mixed as GDP growth for Q3 was revised down while the latest initial jobless claims number came in unexpectedly down and lower than expected. Many traders saw the combination as a wash as equity futures were little changed. While technically the change in the component mix (from final sales to inventories) should lead to downward revisions to fourth quarter GDP forecasts, more current data (notably the recent declines in jobless claims) might suggest an upward revision.

What nonsense. Completely a pretend figure.

And while we’re on the subject of GDP, I want to once again point out how ridiculous it is for anyone, especially economists who should know better, to talk about Debt to GDP comparisons! Completely a worthless metric! Comparing supposed “productivity” to debt is like comparing your neighborhood’s productivity to your own personal debt! What do they have to do with one another? Absolutely NOTHING. Debt to income is what matters, and nations stopped talking about that a long time ago (because we’re bankrupt, and no, money/debt printing does not make you “unbankrupt”).

And since they snow us with bullshit about supposed “productivity,” I feel compelled to respond with that Robert Kennedy Quote:
“Too much and too long, we seem to have surrendered community excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our gross national product...if we should judge the United States of America by that - counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for those who break them. It counts the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and the cost of a nuclear warhead, and armored cars for police who fight riots in our streets. It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.

Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages; the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage; neither our wisdom nor our learning; neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. And it tells us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.”
― Robert F. Kennedy

Just as a sidebar, Corporate Profits were downgraded .3% in the third quarter to go along with the downgrade in GDP.

Speaking of snow jobs, the Weekly Jobless Claims number supposedly fell by a whopping 2,000 to 364,000. This is completely not believable, and is still well above the breakeven threshold of 350k:
Highlights
Layoffs are on a steady decline in what is good news for the jobs market and for the December employment report. Initial claims fell for a third week in a row, down 4,000 to a much lower-than-expected level of 364,000 (prior week revised to 368,000 for a 17,000 decline). The four-week average is also down for a third week in a row and down for six of the last seven, declining 8,000 to 380,250 which is the lowest level of the recovery.

Continuing claims in data for the December 10 week fell 79,000 to 3.546 million, also the lowest level of the recovery. The unemployment rate for insured workers, down one tenth to 2.8 percent, is also at a recovery low.

The holidays, with its shortened weeks and extreme effects, are always a tough to gauge weekly jobless claims data, but the trend is clearly lower in what should be good news for the markets and which should continue to build expectations for a strong gain in December payrolls.



And with the prior week revised higher, the snow job says it decreased by 4,000, not the 2,000 it really did, thus a 100% overstatement of the actual week to week change. If they want to compare revised numbers, then they must wait until the next report – comparing apples to oranges falls into the fraud category in my book.

Just out from Zillow, according to them home values in the United States lost $700 billion in 2011, this is down from the $1.1 trillion in 2010. Still, this is a huge figure that directly impacts the wealth and solvency of Americans. Note that we’re so far into the depression at this point, that the numbers mathematically must start to diminish. In other words, once your home has lost half its value, then the dollar amount of losing the next 50% is far less than the first 50%. I think the same thing is happening to the weekly jobless claims. Once businesses layoff all they can, and a big percentage of them go out of business, then there are simply fewer workers to layoff, and thus the numbers eventually must begin to diminish as the economy gets smaller. And it is smaller despite the phony GDP measurement which really measures debt money production, not real productivity.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index deepened into negative territory. What, they didn’t get the election year trump up the statistics memo?
Highlights
Growth indications are slowing in the national activity index which fell to minus 0.37 in November from a revised minus 0.11 in October (negative indicates below trend growth). Employment is a positive in the report but is being offset by a downturn in production. Housing is still heavily negative with sales, orders & inventories neutral. The index's three-month average is at minus 0.24 (prior revised).

So, tell me how the national index is negative at the same time the individual “Fed” regions report positive numbers? Again, this is one of the key tests of fraud… data in a non-fraud environment will be consistent, while data in a fraudulent and manipulated system is inconsistent.

Consumer Sentiment supposedly rose from 67.7 to 69.9, beating estimates of 68.0. I say, “ba humbug,” instead of the usual “bullshit” just to be in phase with the season. Here’s Econosnow:
Highlights
Consumer sentiment continues to extend its improvement, to 69.9 in December from 64.1 in November and from 67.7 at mid month. The reading implies a very strong 72.1 over the last two weeks which points to momentum for January. The bulk of the gain is centered in expectations, at 63.6 in December for a more than eight point monthly gain that points further to momentum in the new year. The assessment of current conditions, likely held down by bad news out of Europe, rose only two points in the month to 79.6.

One likely positive for sentiment is improvement in the jobs market as well as the stock market which has been on the recovery. Another positive may be gasoline prices which, despite $100 oil, are on the decline. One-year inflation expectations eased one tenth in the month to 3.1 percent with five-year expectations unchanged at 2.7 percent. The Dow is moving to morning highs following this report. The December consumer confidence report from the Conference Board, which in November surged, will be posted on Tuesday.

Forget the snow, this is all bullshit too.

The self-interested FHFA says that the Home Price Index fell .2% in October, this is down from the .9% reported in September (revised all the way down to .4%), and is well below expectations of positive .3%. Gee, more snow:
Highlights
Housing is back under downward price pressure. According to the FHFA, house prices in October declined 0.2 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in September (originally up 0.9 percent) and dipping 0.2 percent in August. The October decrease came in lower than analysts' forecast for a 0.3 percent rise.

On a year-on-year basis, the FHFA HPI is down 2.8 percent versus down 2.7 percent in September.

Six of the nine Census Divisions showed declines in October, led by a 1.0 percent decrease for the New England region. On the upside, the largest gain was a 1.9 percent boost for the East South Central.

Just how deep is the snow when prior “positive” reports are more than cut in half? Pretty darn deep.

Supposed “Leading Indicators” fell from .9% to .5%, but his was higher than the .3% expected by the complicit elite. Here’s Econosnow:
Highlights
The index of leading economic indicators rose a very solid 0.5 percent in November following October's 0.9 percent surge. The leading positive is the rate spread which reflects the Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy. The second positive is building permits which appear to be building steam in what is very good news for the construction sector. Consumer expectations are a big positive in the month and judging from this morning's consumer sentiment report look to be a big positive for December. Another positive that's likely to extend through this month is the November improvement in jobless claims which gave the fifth strongest contribution to the month's 0.5 percent gain.

A decline in the factory workweek is the largest in the short list of negatives, and perhaps one that will reverse this month given early indications of strength in last week's Empire State and Philly Fed reports. A speeding up in vendor deliveries is the second largest negative.

This report is very solid and points, as the Conference Board says, to easing risk of an economic downturn. Other readings include 0.1 percent gains for both the coincident and lagging indexes.

Again, complete bologna. A big part of this index is the movement in equities. With trillions thrown into bond and equity markets, equity prices are WAY overstated. That means any result out of a measurement that uses said manipulated market is also just a reflection of the manipulation. This is very dangerous as it is misleading, not “leading.” Those who don’t understand this fail to see the underlying reality that is Kondratieff Winter. Yes, it’s snowing all right.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/21 - Ridiculous, Impossible, Nothing but FRAUD Edition...

Good Morning,

Equity futures are close to even following yesterday’s ridiculous ramp. The dollar is bouncing, bonds are flat, oil is higher, gold & silver are mixed, and food commodities are down slightly.

Here’s a Bloomberg headline that should make your blood boil as an American, "Bernanke Prods Savers to Become Consumers." Wow, talk about setting your own nation up for failure, self-interest above all else is what he is basically saying. No need to save according to him, he would much rather lend you money so that he and the rest of the private central bankers can continue to be rich off your productive efforts. Why yes, of course more of the same behavior that got us to where we are today will definitely cure the impossible math, sure.

Speaking of impossible math, try this one on and think about the size of these numbers reported by Bloomberg: “The ECB awarded 489 billion euros ($645 billion) in 1,134- day loans, the most ever in a single operation and more than economists’ median estimate of 293 billion euros in a Bloomberg News survey.”

OMG! $645 billion in one day? That’s quite the “operation!” And the math is so ridiculously out-of-control that it’s not even funny. As if more debt money, more “liquidity” is what is needed! Too much money, all in the WRONG HANDS is the problem! Does this look like a money shortage problem to you?

M1


No, the problem never has been about liquidity, the real problem is solvency – the difference being that it requires income to service debt, creating more debt, as in the ECB “operation” above, only makes the solvency problem worse. Ridiculously impossible – laughable.

There’s only one way out of the impossible math, and it involves clearing out the debt. And then there’s only one way to prevent it from happening again, and that involves changing out WHO it is that was wrongly given the authority to control the production of our money.

Turning back to the housing market, here’s a statistic that will blow your socks off:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Nearly five years into the crisis, just how badly are foreclosures still hurting the housing market?

A whopping 46% of homes sold in November were either short sales or REOs -- as homes foreclosed on and repossessed by lenders are called, according to a survey by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance released Tuesday.

"The huge glut of distressed properties coming to market is why there will be no home price rebound this coming year and maybe into 2013," said Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance, a publisher of mortgage information and news.

Nearly half of all sales are short sales or REO’s! Think about that one – it means that only half of the already depression era level reported sales figures are conventional transactions! And each family behind that bank owned property or short sale is a devastated family – great job for your masters, Bernanke, I’m thinking treason is a hanging offense.

Speaking of treason, the hypocritical Mortgage Bankers Association are in a criminal class all by themselves. Here’s Econocomplicit reporting their latest down numbers for the prior week:
Highlights
News on the housing market has been turning positive but not for the purchase index for the December 26 week which fell 4.9 percent. The four-week average for the purchase index is down 1.5 percent. The Mortgage Bankers Association warns that low interest rates by themselves aren't enough to stimulate demand given lack of equity in existing homes, poor credit conditions and a still weak jobs market.

The refinancing index fell 1.6 percent in the latest week with the four-week average up 1.3 percent. The average 30-year rate for conforming loans ($417,500 or less) is down four basis points to 4.08 percent for a new 2011 low. Data on existing home sales will be posted at 10:00 a.m. ET this morning.

Nice warning from the asshats who helped destroy so many lives and create so much suffering and turmoil for so many.

Existing Home Sales data was just released by the fraudsters, NAR. The National Association of Realtors, another self-interest driven special interest group has been caught red-handed fudging the housing sales numbers for the past five years. According to other groups who track the data, their overstatement is approximately 20%, and the NAR just owned up to the following:
Also released today are benchmark revisions to historic existing-home sales. The 2010 benchmark shows there were 4,190,000 existing-home sales last year, a 14.6 percent revision from the previously projected 4,908,000 sales. For the total period of 2007 through 2010, sales and inventory were downwardly revised by 14.3 percent. The revisions are expected to have a minor impact on future revisions to Gross Domestic Product.

That’s right, they are revising their data downward by 14.3% for the past four years – a start. But they claim it’s mostly a mistake in their accounting of homes listed “for sale by owner.” Sorry, not believable, there are not enough for sale by owner properties to cover half that figure as they claim. My belief is the NAR was intentionally overstating figures in order to make their own industry appear to be in better shape than it actually was. That is called FRAUD, and there are laws against committing fraud!

Just think of the impact of their fraud… lives ruined, the largest economy in the world distorted by their lies. Their lie is a part of our grossly overstated GDP for crying out loud! This is exactly why private self-interested parties should not be allowed to disseminate important economic statistics on their own industry!

Can you imagine if all sales figures are overstated by nearly 15% (or more)? Gee, what would that revised GDP look like? What, then, would the revised debt to GDP look like? You seeing that snow ball?

Oh yeah, for November Existing Home Sales, according to NAR, fell to a pathetic 4.42 million homes from October’s 4.97 million, this is well below the 5.08 million expected by those economic guessers conditioned by the continuous FRAUD.

Now, if you would like to listen to the NAR’s propaganda on how they calculate their numbers, then the following convoluted methodology is presented:



Of course they could just gather reported sales data from the counties as the sales are recorded, but then they couldn’t claim ignorance, could they? Well, I guess that since MERS isn’t following the law to record titles, STILL, that might not reflect reality either. No rule of law, can’t believe MERS still exists, can’t believe the NAR is allowed to report data on their own industry – that data should come from a neutral, non-conflicted party.

More fraud? The Comex doesn't possess the gold (and other commodities) to which they have open contracts. That means they are fractionalizing gold (and other commodities). In the case Kyle Bass cites below, the Comex has $80 billion in contracts, only $2.7 billion in deliverables! That's only 3.37% of actual materials!! So, as Kyle points out, should 4% of people request actual delivery, the Comex will be unable to deliver to the remaining 96+%... Sure, no fraud there, completely manageable leverage, no problem whatsoever, go long!



By the way, fractionalizing of gold was the way central bankers got started in the money making business, just sayin'...

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/20 - Narcissistic Asshats Edition...

Good Morning,

Equity futures are zooming this morning and overnight as Europe laughably advances with the media touting a “strong” Spanish bond sale. Complete joke on several fronts, the least of which is that neither the equity markets, the bond markets, nor the media are even close to real. In the current central banker paradigm, they own all of the above… all it takes for a “good” or a “bad” bond issue is for them to step in or out with their money made from nothing. That’s it, that’s all it takes. The people have no vote on their actions, no say whatsoever, and that’s exactly why the notion of an “elected democracy” is simply just a fantasy at this point.

Of course our dollar is falling to allow the ramp in equities, bonds are falling from extreme heights, oil is zooming, gold & silver are bouncing, and most importantly to the majority of people on the planet, food commodities are also zooming on the dollar debauchery.

Amazingly, the Greek government announced that due to widening deficits it is stopping all outgoing payments – pensions, all government payments, everything! Yet of course they are not stopping revenue collection! Talk about broken, queue the next level of rioting.

Meanwhile, completely unconcerned about the “majority,” Jamie Dimon, Economic Edge Asshat of the Year Award Winner and CEO of JPMorgan, once again puts his foot into his narcissistic mouth:
Bankers Seek to Debunk ‘Imbecile’ Attack on Top 1%

Jamie Dimon, the highest-paid chief executive officer among the heads of the six biggest U.S. banks, turned a question at an investors’ conference in New York this month into an occasion to defend wealth.
“Acting like everyone who’s been successful is bad and because you’re rich you’re bad, I don’t understand it,” the JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) CEO told an audience member who asked about hostility toward bankers. “Sometimes there’s a bad apple, yet we denigrate the whole.”

Dimon, 55, whose 2010 compensation was $23 million, joined billionaires including hedge-fund manager John Paulson and Home Depot Inc. (HD) co-founder Bernard Marcus in using speeches, open letters and television appearances to defend themselves and the richest 1 percent of the population targeted by Occupy Wall Street demonstrators.

If successful businesspeople don’t go public to share their stories and talk about their troubles, “they deserve what they’re going to get,” said Marcus, 82, a founding member of Job Creators Alliance, a Dallas-based nonprofit that develops talking points and op-ed pieces aimed at “shaping the national agenda,” according to the group’s website. He said he isn’t worried that speaking out might make him a target of protesters.

“Who gives a crap about some imbecile?” Marcus said. “Are you kidding me?”

Mr. Marcus makes a very typical narcissistic statement, echoing much of what Dimon has said in the past. This article, from a source that is complicit and owned by another famous narcissist (Bloomberg), also only mentions Dimon’s base salary, always downplaying what fellow “club” members really make. The fact is that Dimon is heading the world’s largest holder of derivatives, a company that wrongly stole the ability to produce money from the people. He and his company then use that ability to buy their own special rule of law that allows them to rob the American people. The issue is not genuine success, I don’t think anybody denies the genuine successful businessman – but Jamie Dimon is NOT one, he is a cheater and a fraud who has an unfair and illegal advantage (read the Constitution, Article 1, Section 8) over the rest of the people on the planet. And since he has no sympathy for those who don’t have or want his unfair advantage, that is what makes him the king of the narcissists.

This morning Housing Starts data supposedly came in better than expected, largely due to “multi-family” housing – that is apartments for the 99% who are being evicted from their single family homes en masse (thank you, Mr. Dimon, for helping to create the largest housing bubble in history [and then profiting from its collapse] – Asshat!).

Remember, building inventory into an oversupplied and price descending market is not a good thing, in fact bringing on inventory too soon is a bad thing as it will continue to suppress prices. Building apartments is a speculative phenomena by individuals and funds that have too much money and not enough places to put it to work that is REAL. Here’s Econoplicit:
Highlights
New housing construction is showing signs of life in November-although the pulse is still weak. Housing starts in November rebounded 9.3 percent after slipping 2.9 percent in October. The November annualized pace of 0.0.685 million came in higher than market expectations for 0.636 million units and is up 24.3 percent on a year-ago basis. The gain in November was led by a 25.3 percent jump in the multifamily component, following a 15.2 percent decrease in October. The single-family component improved 2.3 percent after a 3.6 percent rise the month before.

By region, the boost in starts was led by a 53.8 percent jump in the Northeast. Other regions showing increases were the West, up 22.6 percent, and the South, up 4.1 percent. The Midwest declined 18.2 percent.

Homebuilders are a growing in optimism although still to a modest degree from low levels as housing permits advanced 5.7 percent after jumping 9.3 percent in October. The November rate of 0.681 million units annualized topped the consensus forecast for 0.645 million. Permits in November are up 20.7 percent on a year-ago basis.

The November gain in permits was led by a 13.9 percent jump in multifamily permits after a 22.7 percent surge in October. Single-family permits rose 1.6 percent, following a 3.6 percent increase the prior month.

Today's housing starts report is consistent with yesterday's report of a rise in the National Association of Home Builders' housing market index. There are signs that the level of activity in single-family home sales is picking up, but the real action clearly has shifted to the multifamily sector as high unemployment and still tight credit are constraining home sales.

Just to put this depression era number into perspective, below is the long term chart of Housing Starts:

Housing Starts:


Yesterday the “Housing Market Index” came out… rising from 20 to 21, what fun! However, since the prior month was revised down to 19, LOL, Econoday touted a 2 point rise! No, I won’t even reproduce that tripe. I’m bringing it up because I want to point out that this Index, and the Housing Starts data are brought to you buy… wait for it… wait for it… the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB – no self-interest there) along with… wait for it… Wells Fargo! I’m laughing so hard I’m spewing coffee that anyone would believe any of this “data.”

So, what else should you know about the “Housing Market Index?” Well, not only does it come from a completely biased group, but it is simply “based on a survey in which respondents from this organization are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions.”

Uh huh. In other words, not in the least bit scientific. So, what’s it for, you may ask? Its purpose is to implant perceptions in your mind, perceptions that the special interests control. That’s it. Usually the special interests don’t like it when their own data looks bad, so what they do is either just stop comparing it to historical data, or they change the methodology to make past comparisons difficult, like what the Mortgage Bankers did with their “data.” In this case, the media like Econoday, stops disseminating charts when the data isn’t favorable. But if you dig a little deeper on the NAHB site, you can still find the data in chart form, and here it is:

Housing Market Index vs. New Single Family Starts:


Clearly depression era numbers, only about a third of the normal historic level. Is that what we get when reading the Econoday reports? Why is that?

Merry freakin' Christmas Jamie Dimon. Self-Delusion can be a dangerous thing.

Here's a sample of reality. In Washington State over the past decade, the number of firms offering their employees health care benefits declined from 76% to just 54% today!
Decade sees steep drop in companies with employee benefits

The percentage of Washington companies offering employee benefits has declined markedly in the last decade, a new report from the Economic Opportunity Institute shows.

In 2002, 76 percent of firms in Washington provided health insurance to full-time employees, while in 2010, that figure was just 54 percent, according to the institute’s Washington’s Working Women 2012.

The percentage of firms offering retirement benefits to full-time employees fell from 60 percent in 2002 to just 36 percent in 2010. And the percentage of firms offering paid sick leave to full-time employees shrank from 56 percent in 2002 to 44 percent in 2010.

For part-time employees — the majority of whom are women, according to the report — only 15 percent of businesses offered retirement benefits, 22 percent provided vacation, and 11 percent offered health benefits.

The report also found that women made only 63 percent of what men did in 2010, a decrease from 1991, when the figure was 65 percent. Men outearned women at every level, making $7,000 more a year at the high-school graduate level and $27,500 per year among those with a professional or graduate degree.

“State budget cuts, declining workplace benefits, and a widening wage gap are putting Washington’s women at risk for more economic instability and poverty in 2012,” the institute commented in a press release.


Did someone say "poverty?" Well, here's the latest chart from the Census Bureau showing the number of people they consider in poverty. Note the trend, but also keep in mind that they adjust the figures for the income level considered "poverty" and that those adjustments don't account for the loss of benefits (see above) that aren't counted as income for these poverty measurements:



Ho, ho, ho, Jamie "Scrooge" Dimon, Merry Freakin' Christmas!

Since this is the week for housing data, I do want to revisit the Option-Arm reset chart. We are now well on the back side of peak, so again I do expect that the pressure on upper end homes will slowly begin to abate in the coming months:

Option-Arm Resets:


No, this is not a bottom call, just that the pressure is coming off a little, the same thing that happened post Subprime. There is another danger wave to housing, that being the artificial low nature of manipulated interest rates.

The markets are now zooming absolutely straight up. Why? I’m sure the media will find the reason, but it will certainly have nothing to do with this:

M1 Money Supply:


I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/19

Good Morning,

Equity futures rose overnight as there is still more endless dreams and much flapping of lips in Europe about creating billions… but by whom, exactly? Everyone seems to think the central IMF criminals will make the pretend money first, the EU doesn’t want to ruin appearances after all. Meanwhile media fraudsters like Bloomberg laugh at the rating agencies for downgrading the U.S. as they see a flight to “safety” trade since the U.S. lost its “triple-A” rating. What I see is nothing but money printing, data manipulation, and fraud.

There is a bunch of housing data coming this week, it kicks off this morning with the Housing Market Index and then later in the week culminates in Existing and New Home Sales where we get to listen to more lies from the National Association of Realtors. Speaking of lies, we also get the final number for Q3 GDP (major eye roll there), and we also get the supposed “Leading Indicators” which lag reality, of course, and is now completely worthless as it considers sophomoric items such as the completely not real and totally manipulated equity market. Remember, ALL of the markets are not real, they are all manipulated as the central bankers directly infuse money from nothing into them – thus the historic disconnect between the data, the spin, and the reality for millions of Americans being marginalized by the narcissist’s behavior.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Open Thread 12/16 - "No Honor in This..."

I'm out of town today so again appreciate keeping one another up to date on today's news in the Open Thread below.

Stumbled upon the following video which I think is excellent. It is a call out, if you will, to the police and military, asking them to evaluate their jobs and to consider the bigger picture. I think the same can be said for those who are supporting the big financial firms, and also those supporting politicians who are on the take and then supporting the financial criminals. I think everyone on the planet needs to evaluate what their life's energy is supporting.

There is no exaggeration in saying that it is a classic good versus evil battle, make sure you are on the right side with your actions that way we don't wind up complacent like the Germans of the early twentieth century.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/15 - Painting the Box Edition...

Good Morning,

Equity markets are considerably higher this morning, the media is hyping a fraudulent Jobless Claims number but the futures have been ramping all night long, they did not just ramp on supposedly “good” economic data. The dollar is slightly weaker, bonds are slightly lower, oil is slightly higher, gold & silver are close to even, and food commodities are slightly higher and still squatting on that neckline.

The Jobless Claims are THE major headline on CNN, “Unemployment Claims at Lowest Level Since ’08.” Supposedly the number came in at 366,000, which is almost to the break even point of 350,000. To which I can only point to the unadjusted data for the week, and I’ll leave it to you to guess how much “seasonal adjustment” is required to make that number happen:
“The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending November 26 was 7,449,507, an increase of 874,670 from the previous week.

They claim, however, that the advance number of Initial Claims fell by 95,506 for the past week, but the week prior they rose by 151,000, which means that over the past two weeks the unadjusted Initial Claims rose by more than 55,000 and yet the reported number has fallen by more than 30,000! Here’s Econostupid:
Highlights
Back to back declines of 19,000 in initial jobless claims are signaling sudden strength in the labor market. Claims in the December 10 week came in at 366,000, far below expectations for 390,000 and compared to 385,000 in the prior week (revised 4,000 higher). The 366,000 level is the lowest since May 2008. The four-week average is down 6,500 to 387,750 for the lowest level since July 2008. The average, in a convincing sign of strength, has been down in 10 of the last 12 weeks.

Continuing claims, in data for the December 3 week, rose 4,000 to 3.603 million, but the four-week average is down 5,000 to 3.666 million which is another recovery best. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 2.9 percent.

Though shortened weeks and special factors during the holidays often cloud this report, the Labor Department cites no difficulties with the data. The data point to a strong upward pivot underway in the jobs market and will build expectations for a strongly improved December employment report.



Yep, it sure is hard to get right during the holiday season… and maybe it’s also hard to get right during the election season too… just sayin’.

Data, when not tampered, tends to be consistent and without conflicting with other data. Yet this morning we get more conflicting data – a negative report on Industrial Production and a positive report from the New York “Fed” on Manufacturing. This data used to be mostly consistent, but in the past year or so has become obviously far less consistent and that tells me that it’s not to be trusted – again no data from self-interested narcissists should be trusted… EVER.

To wit the Empire State Manufacturing Index supposedly rose from the flat level of .61 all the way to 9.53. Here’s Econoplicit:
Highlights
The pace of activity in the New York region's manufacturing sector is picking up briskly this month, to 9.53 for the Empire State index vs little change in November, at 0.61, and a prior run of monthly contraction that goes back to June. New orders are up to 5.10 this month vs minus 2.07 in November with shipments especially strong at 20.87. Manufacturers in the region added to their workforces in the month with the employment index at 2.33 vs minus 3.66 in the prior month. The six-month outlook for general business conditions has really picked up, to 52.33 vs 39.02 in November and 6.74 in October.

Negatives in the report include a contraction in unfilled orders and a rise for input prices. Otherwise this report is a positive and offers an early indication of strength for the nation's manufacturing sector this month.

And then you can contrast that supposed strength against overall Industrial Production which fell from the prior .7% rise to -.2%:
Highlights
Industrial production weakened in November-largely on a decline in auto assemblies although manufacturing was down in general. Industrial production declined 0.2 percent after surging 0.7 percent in October. November's figure was significantly below consensus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. By major components, manufacturing dropped 0.4 percent after gaining 0.5 percent the prior month. For November, utilities output advanced 0.2 percent while mining edged up 0.1 percent.

Manufacturing was pulled down largely by a 3.4 percent drop in output for motor vehicles and parts, following a 3.4 percent jump in October. Excluding autos, manufacturing still slipped 0.2 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise the prior month.

On a seasonally adjusted year-on-year basis, overall industrial production was up 3.7 percent in November, compared to 4.3 percent the month before.

Overall capacity utilization eased to 77.8 percent from the recovery's high of 78.0 percent in October. Analysts had called for 77.8 percent for November.

Although November's manufacturing number is disappointing, it may be temporary as this morning's release for Empire State manufacturing showed an unexpectedly strong number for December. More data on manufacturing will be posted at 10:00 a.m. ET for Philly Fed manufacturing for December.

Truthfully, who cares? We manufacture so little that it’s nothing but a national embarrassment, especially if you were to strip out the manufacturing and exporting of weaponry which makes it shameful.

Besides weapons and cheeseburgers, here's what we're really good at producing:



The PPI rose in November to a supposed +.3% from the prior -.3% (LOL, just look at the chart above). Oil did rise during the month, but food commodities fell, so again I don’t really trust the justifications served up by ‘plicit or the Bureau of Lies and Seasonal adjustments (BLS):
Highlights
Producer price inflation picked up in November but it was due to food, not energy. Producer prices rebounded 0.3 percent after falling 0.3 percent in October. Analysts had expected a 0.2 percent rise in November.

Turning to major components, energy rose 0.1 percent, following a 1.4 percent drop in October. Leading this increase was a 9.4-percent advance in home heating oil prices. Gasoline actually dipped 0.1 percent, following a 2.4 percent decrease in October. Food cost inflation spiked to a 1.0 percent gain after decelerating to a 0.1 percent rise in October. Over half of the November advance can be attributed to the index for fresh and dry vegetables, which rose 11.5 percent.

At the core level, the PPI gained a modest 0.1 percent, following no change in October. For the core, upside pressure came from passenger cars (0.6 percent) and pharmaceuticals (up 0.9 percent) with a decline in prices for light trucks (down 0.2 percent) softening the overall core.

For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate in November was 5.9 percent versus October's 6.1 percent (seasonally adjusted). The core rate in November firmed to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent in October. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for November, the year-ago headline PPI was up 5.7 percent versus 5.9 percent in October. The core was up 2.9 percent on an NSA year-ago basis, compared to 2.8 percent in October.

Of course PPI leads CPI, but both are dramatically underreported.

The TIC data for October took a huge tumble deep into negative territory. That kind of throws a little cold water on the capital flight coming over to the U.S., that is if you believe any of the numbers which I clearly do not. The truth, I think, is that TRILLIONS are flowing from the coffers of the United States to banks and countries overseas and all of that activity is not to be seen in any “TIC” report (nowhere actually). So, we feed them, then the 1% in Europe wealthy and savvy enough to flee with their wealth do. America is no “safe” harbor however, that is all as phony as the data emanating from under the control of American narcissists.

Still, look at the Net Flows and you’ll see that flows went from +$65 Billion all the way down to -$48.8 Billion:
TIC December 2011

Meanwhile the Bloomberg (more self-interest) “Consumer Comfort Index” rose to -49.9, LOL, obviously a very UNcomfortable level, but watch Econo spin that one:
Highlights
Consumer confidence in the U.S. rose last week to the highest level in two months, a sign that job gains may be lifting sentiment during the holiday shopping season. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index improved to minus 49.9 in the period ended December 11 from minus 50.3 the prior week.

Two of the three components of the weekly comfort index improved. The measure of Americans' views of the current state of the economy rose to minus 87.9 last week from minus 89.7 in the prior period, and the buying climate index increased to minus 51.8 from minus 52.6. The gauge of personal finances declined to minus 10 from minus 8.5.

Indeed, there are signs of one track improving in a two-track consumer sector defined by having a full-time job or not. Confidence among consumers with a full-time job rose to minus 32, the highest level since July, from minus 37.6 the prior week. Sentiment declined for Americans who are unemployed and for those with part-time jobs.

Dang, if I didn’t know better, I would almost think we weren’t really in the middle of another Great Depression! To all of which I call bullshit, and am frankly getting very tired of the lies, spin, and outright fraud. Glad to see the “Protestor” make it onto Time’s Person of the Year… hopefully next year it with be the “Revolutionary.”



I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/14 - Gold and Silver Correcting Edition…

Good Morning,

Equity futures are falling again, with the dollar stronger and breaking out, Euro falling and breaking down, oil is lower and may have put in a top, gold & silver are in correction mode, and food commodities are hanging tough at that large neckline.

The hypocritical self-interested hacks who refer to themselves as the Mortgage Banker’s Association are still spewing completely not believable statistics and should, in my opinion, be shut down. The claim this week is that last week Purchase Applications fell a whopping 8.2% (in just one week – I have some swamp land for you and this is tame for their standards), while at the same time they claim that refinancing activity rose (the opposite direction) by 9.3%!! Ha, ha, that’s a 17.5% gap between the two, all in the course of just one week. Do you believe that? If so, I have a great “investment” for your retirement, contact me. Here’s Econocomplicit:
Highlights
The volume of purchase applications swung lower in the December 9 week, down 8.2 percent vs an 8.3 percent rise in the prior week. Swings in weekly data can be severe but the overall trend for purchase applications has been positive. The volume of applications for refinancing has also been positive, up 9.3 percent on top of the prior week's 15.3 percent gain. Low mortgage rates are behind the demand with the 30-year averaging 4.12 percent, down six basis points for the lowest rate of the year.

Complete fraud, again, my opinion is that the people disseminating this data should be prosecuted – their data, I believe, is completely biased and misleading and has been so during the creation of the largest housing bubble in history that has damaged millions of lives. Their deceptive practices picked up a notch as the bubble imploded and they changed the way they report the data in order to make tracking reality more difficult. Fraud most certainly is a prosecutable offense and that should be applied to the MBA as well as the NAR, and the reporting of such statistics should be mandated to be placed in unbiased hands.

Meanwhile, the BLS says that Import prices rose in November by .7% and that Export prices rose by .1%. However, the year over year figures are showing price deceleration, here’s Econospin:
Highlights
Belying a jump at the headline level, inflationary pressures from import prices are easing. A 3.6 percent monthly surge in the price of imported petroleum products skewed total import prices 0.7 percent higher in November. But when excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.2 percent following a 0.3 percent ex-petroleum decline in the prior month. Import prices for final goods show no more than marginal pressure, up 0.1 percent in the month for both capital goods and consumer goods. On the export side prices are also subdued, up only 0.1 percent in November following a decline in October.

The rise in the dollar, which is getting a major boost from safe-haven demand tied to Europe, is a major factor helping to subdue inflationary pressures from import costs. This together with no more than moderate economic demand are preventing pass through of high energy costs. Today's report should confirm expectations for moderate core readings for tomorrow's producer price report and Friday's report on the consumer side.



The mask is now completely off Europe. Despite their meetings, rumors, and supposed deals to leverage to infinity and beyond, spreads continue to blow wide and politicians are forced to concede that solutions won’t come “easily.” No kidding, that’s because the impossible math and debt saturation they created just is. In the background nations are making preparations for the day the Euro in its present form is no longer – I believe we are very close to that day, it is coming soon. There are dangers involved in the transition, of course, so we need to maintain our vigilance.

The dollar and the U.S. are no better off, we just are better at charades for the time being. The dollar in its present form is equally toast, the clock is ticking here too. Because that clock is based on the exponential math that underlies debt, time will appear to move more quickly into the future until we reach the “event horizon.” To me that is the day the dollar in its present form is done and we wind up with the next iteration… the key will be WHO is then in charge of controlling the production of the money. That is THE most important thing for a nation to get right.

While the Europeans are having difficulty forcing more square debt into the round debt saturated black hole, criminals the world over are disappointed that the world’s Central Criminals aren’t producing massive more quantities of money, as if this were somehow not enough:

M1:


Well, it’s not enough because all the money production is going into the wrong hands – that’s a function of WHO controls the production.

With money production completely out of control, commodities have been the place to be to shelter wealth – Waves of inflation, waves of deflation. Right now commodities are experience a wave of withdraws, but the primary trend lines are still very much in tact – let’s take a closer look.

Gold has broken its daily chart uptrend line and is definitely in correction mode. As you can see on the Daily chart below, the next area of support is in the $1,550 range:



When we zoom out and look at the gold Weekly chart we see that next trendline pretty clearly:



But that Weekly uptrend line is not THE primary trend line, no, that is found on the Monthly chart where it is clear that the mid $700 level is where the long term trend line resides, with an intermediate support line in the $1,100 region:



First of all, from my perspective nothing has changed fundamentally – the world is still saturated with debt, the math is completely beyond impossible. Thus those WHO are currently in power (in charge of the production of money) ARE with great certainty going to do anything and everything they can to hold onto that power. If that means bankrupting the nation and everyone in it – consider it done. The overall trend is clear – money will be produced until all confidence is gone.

Still, if you are playing in gold, watching the corrections can make it hard to hold on. I would say that if you are a speculator with a short time horizon, then you should have sold on a break of the daily trendline, buy again at the weekly trendline. However, if you are a middle term investor, you may want to hold until the weekly trendline and see what happens. If it breaks, then use that line as your demarcation line for your in or out decision point… riding from $1,550 all the way to $1,100 or $750 would not be fun if a serious wave of deflation comes. Of course moving in and out isn’t for everyone, so if you are in it to ride all the waves out, forget about it, nothing’s changed.

Looking at the silver chart, it is also in correction mode with up slopping support in the $24 to $25 range:



While that looks like a big correction in silver, put in perspective. Only a few short years ago the prospect of $20 silver seemed radical. Again, nothing’s changed, the fundamentals are the same, waves of inflation, waves of deflation, but in the end inflation kills the currency. In regards to precious metals and commodities, also remember that they are some of the most highly manipulated markets there are. There will be moves to intentionally make you abandon your position. One trick now commonly used is to break the trendline, then reverse. So, from my perspective nothing is safe in this environment, it is all lawless 100% of the time. The only way to ensure you end the lawlessness is to return the power of money production into the hands of the people where it properly belongs.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/13 - Lies, More Lies, and Still More Lies Edition

Good Morning,

Equity futures are rising bouncing this morning with the dollar flat, bonds lower, oil higher, gold & silver flatware, needed to swallow rising food commodity prices.

Gamblers beware, yesterday the market fell substantially, but so did the VIX.

There have been many large corporations lowering their earning estimates in the past week, this morning it was Best Buy’s turn. Hmmm, how does that square with all the hype over huge (supposedly record setting) gains in “Black Friday” sales, and now the made for T.V. supposed 15% one year gain in online sales to which my bullshit flag is flying at full mast!?

Yep, not so much. Retail Sales for November decelerated from the .5% supposed growth in October to only .2% which is less than half the .5% expected. Just as a reminder, the Retail Sales report is grossly overstated due to measurement in dollars and also due to substitution bias which fails to account for stores that have closed. So, all the hype was just that, a complete snow job on the populace – here’s Econoplicit:
Highlights
Retail sales in November advanced but not as strongly as expected. However, October and September were revised up and weakness in November was largely in components that had surged earlier. Overall retail sales in November grew 0.2 percent, following a 0.6 percent boost in October (originally up 0.5 percent) and a 1.3 percent spike in September (previously up 1.1 percent). November's number fell short of market expectations for a 0.5 percent increase. Excluding autos, retail sales gained 0.2 percent in November after increasing 0.6 percent in October (unrevised) and increasing 0.6 percent in September (previously up 0.5 percent). Analysts had called for a 0.4 percent improvement. Gasoline sales declined marginally in November. Sales excluding autos and gasoline in November rose 0.2 percent, following a healthy 0.7 percent increase in October. Within the core (excluding autos and gasoline), gains were mixed but mostly positive.

Overall components were largely favorable. Once again, the strongest component was for electronics & appliance stores which jumped 2.1 percent in November, followed by nonstore retailers (up 1.5 percent) and auto dealers (up 0.5 percent). Also seeing gains were furniture & home furnishing, clothing & accessory stores, sporting goods & hobby, and general merchandise.

The largest decline was for miscellaneous store retailers, down 1.2 percent. Modest decreases also were seen in building materials & garden equipment, food & beverage, health & personal care, gasoline stations, and food services & drinking places.

Retail sales on a year-ago basis in November came in at up 6.7 percent, compared to 7.5 percent in October. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 6.6 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 7.5 percent the month before.

The headline numbers for November retail sales were disappointing but upward revisions are partially offsetting. The trend still appears to be moderately healthy spending gains, taking into account earlier robust gains. However, today's later released Redbook sales suggest a deceleration in sales growth in early December. A caveat as always is that weekly numbers are relatively volatile.

So much for setting records, note how Econoday fails to compare the current number to the revised number like they do when it’s the other way around? If they reported this consistently then the headline would read, “Retail Sales growth only one-third that of October!” But the truth is, as I’ve pointed out repeatedly, these numbers are all, well let’s just say that my bologna has a first name…

If you really want to see your true Retail Sales growth and true all-time records, here it is right here:

M1


Gee, measure retail sales in dollars, how’s that .2% increase in “sales” looking now? Can you say exponential math?

Yep, getting close to a record all right:

M2 Velocity:


Bucking the trend of large corporate misses, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index actually did rise 1.8 points in November, up to 92.0 which is still well below their base 100 index number. Here’s Econohope followed by the entire NFIB report which is a always a pretty good read and indeed they are more optimistic sounding… (just as the rug gets pulled?)
Highlights
Pessimism is easing significantly in the small business sector based on the November sentiment report from the National Federation of Independent Business whose index is up 1.8 points to 92.0. Five of 10 components rose while three held unchanged with gains led by a big jump in the key component of future sales. Employment plans also rose sharply while economic expectations improved sharply. Though the direction is positive, overall readings still remain weak and well below those prior to 2008.
NFIB Small Business Index Dec 2011

Also from the B.S. department, the National Association of Realtors is admitting that they, too, have been grossly overestimating sales:
Home sales even worse than we thought

After its numbers were challenged, the National Association of Realtors took another look at the data and has decided to lower its numbers for home sales from 2007 to 2010.

Last year saw the fewest number of homes sold in 13 years. Now we find the number is even smaller than the 4.91 million sales we thought occurred.

The National Association of Realtors, which for decades has published statistics on sales of existing homes, says that its data were wrong and that fewer homes were sold from 2007 to 2010 than it had reported.

New numbers will be issued Dec. 21, The Associated Press reported.

Questions about the numbers were first raised earlier this year by CoreLogic, a real-estate analysis firm, which said the NAR's home-sales numbers could be as much as 20% too high.

While the NAR said 4.91 million existing homes were sold in 2010, CoreLogic said its analysis showed that only 3.3 million homes were sold.

The NAR responded by saying it would take another look at the data. In recent months, the group consulted with CoreLogic, as well as the Federal Reserve, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Home Builders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, The AP reported.

The NAR concluded that its numbers were too high and that some sales had been counted twice.

OOPS! Reported home sales 20% too high? …Just a mistake, no nefarious action there, no. No self-interest driven deception foisted upon the masses that a commoner might commonly refer to as FRAUD?

“No,” says President Obama, “technically” they can’t be prosecuted because they didn’t break the law. Really? Guess he’s never heard that fraud is completely illegal.

In case you didn't see it yesterday in the comments, here is someone who is running for President who promises to actually do something about the fraud:



I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

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